MACROECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE
Global Macro Dashboard
Central Bank Policy • Inflation Dynamics • Liquidity Indicators • Business Cycles
Key Macro Metrics
Live economic indicators and market conditions
Fed Funds Rate
CURRENT
5.33%
↓ -25 bps last cut
CPI YoY
ELEVATED
3.4%
↑ +0.1% MoM
10Y Treasury Yield
FIXED INCOME
4.48%
↑ +8 bps
USD Index (DXY)
CURRENCY
104.25
↑ +0.4%
Global Liquidity
EXPANDING
$142T
↑ +$2.8T YoY
Fed Balance Sheet
QT ACTIVE
$7.4T
↓ -$1.2T from peak
Unemployment Rate
STRONG
3.7%
No change
ISM Manufacturing
CONTRACTIONARY
47.2
↓ -1.3 pts
Global Interest Rate Dashboard
Central bank policy rates and forward guidance
Central Bank Policy Rates
Federal Reserve (US)
5.33%
Last Meeting
Dec 2024
Next Meeting
Jan 31, 2025
Dot Plot Median
3.75% (2025)
European Central Bank
4.50%
Last Meeting
Dec 2024
Next Meeting
Jan 25, 2025
Forward Guidance
Data-Dependent
Bank of Japan
0.25%
Last Meeting
Dec 2024
Next Meeting
Jan 24, 2025
Policy Stance
Gradual Normalization
Inflation Dynamics
Real-time price pressures and breakeven rates
CPI Components
Core vs Headline CPI
CPI (Headline)
3.4%
↑ +0.1% MoM
Core CPI
3.9%
↓ -0.2% MoM
PCE (Fed Preferred)
2.9%
↓ -0.1% MoM
5Y Breakeven Rate
2.38%
↑ +5 bps
Global Liquidity Indicators
Central bank balance sheets and money supply metrics
Central Bank Balance Sheets (Combined)
Fed Balance Sheet
QT ACTIVE
$7.42T
↓ -$95B monthly runoff
ECB Balance Sheet
REDUCING
€6.85T
↓ -€60B monthly
BoJ Balance Sheet
STABLE
¥740T
Holding steady
M2 Money Supply (US)
GROWING
$21.2T
↑ +3.2% YoY
Reverse Repo (US)
DECLINING
$450B
↓ -$1.8T from peak
Treasury General Account
MODERATE
$680B
Normal range
Economic Calendar & Cycle Tracker
Key indicators and business cycle positioning
Business Cycle Phase
▲ CURRENT
Recovery (0-25%)
Expansion (25-50%)
Slowdown (50-75%)
Recession (75-100%)
| Indicator | Latest Value | Previous | Trend | Next Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI (YoY) | 3.4% | 3.1% | ↑ Rising | Feb 13, 2025 |
| Core PCE | 2.9% | 3.2% | ↓ Falling | Jan 26, 2025 |
| Nonfarm Payrolls | 216K | 173K | ↑ Strong | Feb 7, 2025 |
| ISM Manufacturing | 47.2 | 48.4 | ↓ Contraction | Feb 3, 2025 |
| ISM Services | 52.7 | 52.7 | → Expansion | Feb 5, 2025 |
| GDP (QoQ Annualized) | 3.3% | 4.9% | ↓ Slowing | Jan 25, 2025 |
COT Report — E-Mini S&P 500 | تقرير الالتزامات
CFTC Legacy Futures · CME Code 13874A · Report Date: March 17, 2026
Master Positions Data
Contract: $50 × S&P 500 INDEX | Source: tradingster.com/cot/legacy-futures/13874A
Open Interest
2,330,659
↑ +333,939
| Category | Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Non-Reportable | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long | Short | Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short | |
| Positions | 208,531 | 321,588 | 95,790 | 1,744,037 | 1,724,917 | 2,048,358 | 2,142,295 | 282,301 | 188,364 |
| Changes | +10,302 | -11,146 | +45,822 | +257,157 | +295,159 | +313,281 | +329,835 | +20,658 | +4,104 |
| % of OI | 8.9% | 13.8% | 4.1% | 74.8% | 74.0% | 87.9% | 91.9% | 12.1% | 8.1% |
| Traders | 64 | 67 | 65 | 261 | 218 | 363 | 313 | Total: 449 | |
Non-Commercial Net Position | صافي المركز
-113,057 ▼
Change: +21,448 vs prev week
Long vs Short Positions | المراكز الطويلة مقابل القصيرة
Institutional Sentiment (Non-Commercial) | المشاعر المؤسسية
-200K (Max Bearish)
Current: -113,057
+200K (Max Bullish)
Ray Dalio Big Debt Cycle
Current Phase: Late Expansion / Beginning of Deleveraging
Early Expansion: Credit expands, debt burdens low
Late Expansion: Asset prices inflate, debt rises
Peak: Debt service exceeds income growth
Contraction: Credit contracts, defaults begin